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La
Niņa conditions are now well established across the central
and eastern Equatorial Pacific. The magnitude of the current
sea surface temperature departures from normal in the
central and eastern Equatorial Pacific are in the
middle-range of La Niņa events found in the historical
record. La Niņa conditions are most likely to continue at
least through the first quarter of 2008. Each La Niņa
event is different in some respect from the other events,
but some, like this one, are more different from the others.
The most substantial difference for this event is that sea
surface temperatures currently across the north of Australia
to the Indian Ocean continue to be cooler than normal,
contrary to those generally found in most La Niņa events.
In addition, the sequence leading up to this event has been
unusual, with La Niņa conditions established only after a
break in movement to such conditions during April-June. For
management of climate risks and climate-related risks during
this event, it is therefore critical to recognize the
specific aspects of the current evolving situation and
consult regional seasonal climate outlooks that factor in
both the prevailing La Niņa conditions, and other aspects
of the climate system, such as the unusual conditions
prevailing in the Indian Ocean.
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